New, state-of-the-art supply network capability simulation and modeling software technology will help Defense Logistics Agency Energy conduct world-class assessment of global fuel supply networks capacity to meet warfighter surge requirements and replace legacy manual spreadsheet-driven processes.
“Leveraging commercial best business simulation and modeling practices will enable timely and objective analysis to shape optimal resource decisions by managers and senior leaders,” said DLA Energy Supply Chain Integration Logistics Management Specialist David Ray.
DLA Operations Research and Resource Analysis is funding the University of Arkansas’s Center for Excellence in Logistics and Distribution to develop a fuel supply network simulation and modeling software concept.
“CELDi encompasses several universities that research and develop innovative tools for partnership organizations and allows students to participate in these projects to gain valuable experience resolving unique logistics and distribution challenges,” said Andre Hinson, DLA Energy planner for the U.S. European and Africa commands.
Hinson is one of several DLA Energy personnel providing guidance to the CELDi research project. The project lead is DORRA’s team with DLA Energy providing a supporting role.
“The 2016 European Logistics War Game showed that the current tools were not giving the organization a full operating picture to meet the needs of the warfighter,” Hinson said. “The CELDi research project uses a simulation model to analyze DLA’s fuel supply chain to better assess DLA Energy’s supply network capacity.”
In previous war games, DORRA used spreadsheets and charts to track capabilities. Labor intensive and less accurate, the tools did not include real-world equipment failure or supply shortages that might affect the mission.
The newly developed model will display how fuel flows to stations in the continental U.S. and abroad.
“This will assist in determining possible ‘choke points’ by allowing us to just hit a button to simulate where fuel would max out or be delayed in distribution,” Hinson said. “The system will work similar to one used by U.S. Transportation Command but our system will focus on the flow of Class III bulk fuel.”
TRANSCOM uses the Joint Flow and Analysis System for Transportation that determines transportation requirements for equipment from origin to final destination by using maps, animations and other information, Hinson added.
The CELDi model focuses on fuel gaps and can be used for day-to-day planning, to identify capacity gaps and improve usage of the agency’s fuel reserves and capacity resources.
The team is currently developing a simulation demonstration for a section of the Colonial Pipeline, a 5,000 mile pipeline stretching from Houston to New Jersey, for its simulation model testing.
The Colonial Pipeline is used because it relies on all modes of transportation – rail, trucks and air – to move fuel to its final destination, Ray added.
"The pipeline is complex and relies on several moving parts to get fuel where it needs to go,” he said.
Within the CELDi model, planners will input data to query or simulate moving fuel to end users, Hinson explained. We look at our supply chain networks and perform analysis for operations improvements and work with our partners for new opportunities to accomplish this goal, he added.
“Since the Worldwide Energy Conference was held, several people in the energy world have come forward with forecasting systems that we can pull ideas from, but we still need a system that is user friendly and approved by the Communications directorate [J-6],” Hinson said.
The team conducts weekly conferences calls and attends conferences to share insights and suggestions to enhance the system and learn what other universities are working on for other organizations.
In the first phase of the project, the team mapped out the process, identified key data elements and sources and developed the initial simulation.
“The system will work with the Enterprise Business System in order to look at capacity, fill in gaps and perform test runs,” Hinson said. “We will work with DLA Operations [J-3] as well as TRANSCOM to embed this into its system. Ultimately, we want to have something that can be used as a stand-alone system.”
“Within EBS, customers are able to input sales projections for the next 12 months based on forecasts projected by DLA Energy demand planners,” said Steve Williams, Demand Planning lead project manager and one of the subject matter experts providing information during the developmental phase of the project.
Once complete, the model will use information created in the bulk-petroleum contingency report (REPOL). REPOL is a daily fuel report governed by the Joint Publication 4-03, Joint Bulk Petroleum and Water Doctrine, which falls under the direction of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
“REPOL provides us and the services with summary information on bulk petroleum inventories and infrastructure information to bases we support for planning purposes,” Hinson explained. “It also contains historical fuel consumption data.”
During the testing phase, SMEs from various DLA Energy divisions will use the system and evaluate how well it predicts changes and provide improvements to the system.
“We know certain data points but we’re working with the DORRA team to ensure that the language we put in the application is correct,” said CELDi Director Dr. Manuel Rossetti. “We are still working on the prototype models but once that part is complete, we will place it in a more stable system.”
In the end, DLA Energy hopes the system will be able to help identify supply network choke points and inform resource decisions to ensure uninterrupted contingency support to the warfighter helping to avoid early surge sustainment crisis, Ray added. “Bottom line, it falls on our ability to support the warfighter in the most effective and efficient way possible,” he said.
“We see this simulation model going beyond the Department of Defense. The commercial sector also has the need to understand capacity within their supply chains, especially when trying to plan against supply chain disruption and measure the resilience of their networks,” Rossetti said.