First Class Cadets Geremy Kendrick, Ed Pond, and Matt Huemme pose for a photo before giving their presentation at the 2018 Service Academy Student Mathematics Conference held at the Coast Guard Academy in New London, Conn., April 12, 2018.
Their project is Redesign of the Force Structure Model.
U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Lauren Laughlin
The Force Structure Model (FSM) was created for the Coast Guard in 2001 and is used to forecast the effects potential changes to the billet structure of the enlisted workforce have on an enlisted member’s time in grade (TIG). The model provides decision makers estimates of these impacts on TIG through a combination of analysis of historical data and Markov chain forecasting. The FSM is contained in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and can be accessed by any Coast Guard member on the Coast Guard Portal website. It has been edited and changed over the past 17 years with minimal documentation or commenting. This work analyzes the inputs, outputs, and processes in the model. Modifications to the TIG historical analysis and ideal TIG were made in order to improve the accuracy of the model. Further, commenting and documentation are provided to facilitate understanding and future maintenance by CG-126, the Coast Guard’s Office of Strategic Workforce Planning and Human Resources Analytics. Lastly, the user interface of the workbook is updated and improved to allow for easier use and better interpretation of the proposed effects.
Advisor: Dr. Eric Johnson, Lt. Cmdr. Mary Bender, and Capt. Melinda McGurer, Coast Guard Academy Department of Mathematics